While much of this past weekend was spent at weddings, concerts, and in the car, my mind was otherwise focused on the second round of the NHL playoffs (which are going almost the exact opposite of how I had predicted) and, perhaps more importantly, the 2008 NFL Draft.
Heading into the draft I personally felt there were a few needs that were worthy of attention on the 'Hawks roster. Specifically I felt that running back (a power runner, specifically), tight end, and a run stopper at DT were particular areas of need. I also felt that taking the best kicker possible late in the draft to challenge Mare in camp would also be a wise choice. When the dust had settled late Sunday afternoon, not only had the 'Hawks fulfilled these specific needs but they had done more than this not only in terms of talent but also in regards to the character of the individuals they drafted. Here are the draftees with round and overall pick number indicated...
1. (28) Lawrence Jackson, DE, Southern Cal
2. (38) John Carlson, TE, Notre Dame
4. (121) Red Bryant, DT, Texas A&M
5. (163) Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia
6. (189) Tyler Schmitt, LS, San Diego State
7. (233) Justin Forsett, RB, Cal
7. (235) Brandon Coutu, K, Georgia
Of these picks the ones that I'm frankly the most excited about are Bryant and Owen Schmitt. At 6'5", 328 lbs., Bryant is a prototypical NFL run stopper. Especially with the loss of Darby and Wyms in the offseason and Rocky Bernard's recent legal issues this is not only a smart pick but, given when Bryant was chosen, also a definite value choice. Schmitt, who may just have the coolest nickname in NFL history (Runaway Beer Truck), will fit in nicely as a blocker out of the backfield. His versatility, however, means that his role in the offense should go beyond merely being a blocker for the backs.
The most surprising pick, and the one which has received the most criticism, is the drafting of long snapper Tyler Schmitt. While the drafting of a long snapper is rare, even in the later rounds, anyone who watched the 'Hawks struggles with this position last year will understand why this postion was a consideration in the draft. Hopefully Schmitt will solve some of the special teams problems that were evident last year and also contribute to kick coverage situations.
I have to admit that it's been awhile since I've been so excited about a Seahawks draft class. The organization not only chose some amazing athletes with terrific potential at the professional level but they also filled specific needs on the team. I predict that the contribution of this particular draft class will be notable this season with only Forsett a real possibility to end up on the practice squad. Perhaps more importantly, however, is that the first four picks have all tested off the charts when it comes to character and work ethic. Bryant, in particular, appears to be one of those guys that is a great teammate and exceptional leader. In all, the words being used to describe the individual members of this particular Seahawk draft class bode well not only for the long term but for the immediate impact which they might have on the field as well as in the locker room.
Next, mini-camp and an early chance to see how these picks might fit in with the team...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Western Conference Quarterfinal: Anaheim v. Dallas
Written before the series started. Honest! (it's pretty clear on this one...)
I could be completely offbase on this one (just like all my other predictions, lol) but, to me, if there's a potential sweep in the first round it's this series. Anaheim has the best record in the league since Scott Neidermayer decided to come back and, to me, they've been playing even better since Selanne decided to rejoin the team.
Meanwhile the Stars have struggled since the trade deadline, finishing 6-8-2. Perhaps more troublesome is the fact that Turco was freaking great at times during this stretch. In 13 games starting in March, Turco had a GAA of just under 2.40 yet only won 1 game during that stretch. Simply put, even when Turco had a great night, the Star really struggled to find ways to put the puck in the net and give him any sort of support. Given the way the Ducks have been playing, this is a bad sign for the Stars' chance in the first round.
In watching both of these teams over the last quarter of the season, there really isn't a comparison. The Stars clearly have some talent and can be very opportunistic at times but they just haven't been playing with any urgency or drive. The Ducks, however, are focused and motivated to defend their title. Sure, the Stars could turn it on in the postseason, but there's nothing heading into this series to suggest that they should win more than one game against Anaheim.
I could be completely offbase on this one (just like all my other predictions, lol) but, to me, if there's a potential sweep in the first round it's this series. Anaheim has the best record in the league since Scott Neidermayer decided to come back and, to me, they've been playing even better since Selanne decided to rejoin the team.
Meanwhile the Stars have struggled since the trade deadline, finishing 6-8-2. Perhaps more troublesome is the fact that Turco was freaking great at times during this stretch. In 13 games starting in March, Turco had a GAA of just under 2.40 yet only won 1 game during that stretch. Simply put, even when Turco had a great night, the Star really struggled to find ways to put the puck in the net and give him any sort of support. Given the way the Ducks have been playing, this is a bad sign for the Stars' chance in the first round.
In watching both of these teams over the last quarter of the season, there really isn't a comparison. The Stars clearly have some talent and can be very opportunistic at times but they just haven't been playing with any urgency or drive. The Ducks, however, are focused and motivated to defend their title. Sure, the Stars could turn it on in the postseason, but there's nothing heading into this series to suggest that they should win more than one game against Anaheim.
Western Conference Quarterfinal: Detroit v. Nashville
Written before the series started. Honest!
The roll that the Red Wings were on for a good part of the season was pretty astounding. For awhile they looked unstoppable and, I think, if the playoffs had started in January then they would be the unchallenged favorites. Then the injury bug hit. They still played very well but not in quite the dominant fashion with which they were breezing past teams during the first part of the season. Even with a couple of slips here and there, they still managed to walk away with the President's Trophy and home ice throughout the playoffs.
The story was exactly the opposite for the Preds. Nashville lost a tremendous number of players in the offseason and most media types had them missing the playoffs this year. Instead, the Preds put some things together and managed to stay in the race for a spot most of the year. They were in that 6th through 10th race in the west for a big chunk of the season and, when Chris Mason started to struggle, a lot of people thought all was lost. Dan Ellis stepped up, however, and put together a couple of good hot streaks, including one over the last couple of weeks of the season that helped Nashville lock up a playoff spot.
So...can the Preds pull off the upset here? I think they'll make it more interesting that a lot are predicting but, ultimately, no, the Wings will advance. Certainly if you take a look at the rosters and stats this should be a no-brainer...the Wings have loads of talent at forward and defense. Really their only potential weakness might be in net...and they certainly aren't really struggling there either! The key stat for me, however, is shots allowed on net. The Wings lead the NHL in this category allowing on average 23.5 shots allowed per game. When you have goalies who are relatively solid (even if they aren't the same as they once were) like Hasek and Osgood this is a devastating number for a team that's trying to outscore the Wings. Given the forwards they have and the offense generated from the Wings blueline it's no wonder they basically strolled to the league's best record.
I do think, however, that all of the pressure is on Detroit in this series. The Preds will be loose and that's why I think they'll make things interesting. I look for them to stretch Detroit to six games before going home for the summer...
The roll that the Red Wings were on for a good part of the season was pretty astounding. For awhile they looked unstoppable and, I think, if the playoffs had started in January then they would be the unchallenged favorites. Then the injury bug hit. They still played very well but not in quite the dominant fashion with which they were breezing past teams during the first part of the season. Even with a couple of slips here and there, they still managed to walk away with the President's Trophy and home ice throughout the playoffs.
The story was exactly the opposite for the Preds. Nashville lost a tremendous number of players in the offseason and most media types had them missing the playoffs this year. Instead, the Preds put some things together and managed to stay in the race for a spot most of the year. They were in that 6th through 10th race in the west for a big chunk of the season and, when Chris Mason started to struggle, a lot of people thought all was lost. Dan Ellis stepped up, however, and put together a couple of good hot streaks, including one over the last couple of weeks of the season that helped Nashville lock up a playoff spot.
So...can the Preds pull off the upset here? I think they'll make it more interesting that a lot are predicting but, ultimately, no, the Wings will advance. Certainly if you take a look at the rosters and stats this should be a no-brainer...the Wings have loads of talent at forward and defense. Really their only potential weakness might be in net...and they certainly aren't really struggling there either! The key stat for me, however, is shots allowed on net. The Wings lead the NHL in this category allowing on average 23.5 shots allowed per game. When you have goalies who are relatively solid (even if they aren't the same as they once were) like Hasek and Osgood this is a devastating number for a team that's trying to outscore the Wings. Given the forwards they have and the offense generated from the Wings blueline it's no wonder they basically strolled to the league's best record.
I do think, however, that all of the pressure is on Detroit in this series. The Preds will be loose and that's why I think they'll make things interesting. I look for them to stretch Detroit to six games before going home for the summer...
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Western Conference Quarterfinals: Minnesota v. Colorado
Minny is emerging as a darkhorse pick by some to be the team that advances from the West. To a degree it's understandable...the post-lockout Lemaire system has arguably been perfected this year, giving the Wild the first division championship in franchise history. The Avs, however, played pretty damn well after the holiday break. Jose Theodore was one of the better goalies in the league over the past couple of months and the infusion of Avs 'throwbacks' like Forsberg and Foote have some thinking that Colorado may be able to pull off an upset in the first round.
To me the key questions in this series are how well can Theodore play and, maybe more importantly, can the Avs play relatively mistake free hockey against a team that makes a living taking advantage of mistakes? The Wild have boosted their offensive output a bit this year...Gaborik has been amazing at times...so the Avs can't count on the same low offensive output which has been the downfall of the Wild in the past. The discipline with which Minnesota plays is a big factor here. They'll simply wait and wait for a mistake to be made while, at the same time, using their more skilled forwards to create chances in the offensive zone. Because of this, I think they're much more dangerous offensively than a lot of the media types are giving them credit for.
The difference to me, then, is goaltending. Simply put, Theodore is going to have to play well if for no reason other than the fact that Backstrom has been so consistent this year for Minnesota. The Wild do a terrific job of cutting off the passing lanes, reducing the quality chances that their opposition has offensively. This means fewer tips, one timers, and chances created by finesse in the offensive zone...exactly the strength of the Colorado forwards. Backstrom won't be challenged as much, in other words, so Theodore is going to have to be on.
In my opinion, the Avs will push Minnesota in a couple of games but, ultimately, won't be able to withstand the total team effort that Lemaire makes sure his team brings on a nightly basis. In watching the Wild this year (and I've seen them quite a bit given that they're a NW division team) they just seem like a team born and bred for the postseason. I think they begin what may very well be a surprising playoff run here by eliminating the Avs in five...
To me the key questions in this series are how well can Theodore play and, maybe more importantly, can the Avs play relatively mistake free hockey against a team that makes a living taking advantage of mistakes? The Wild have boosted their offensive output a bit this year...Gaborik has been amazing at times...so the Avs can't count on the same low offensive output which has been the downfall of the Wild in the past. The discipline with which Minnesota plays is a big factor here. They'll simply wait and wait for a mistake to be made while, at the same time, using their more skilled forwards to create chances in the offensive zone. Because of this, I think they're much more dangerous offensively than a lot of the media types are giving them credit for.
The difference to me, then, is goaltending. Simply put, Theodore is going to have to play well if for no reason other than the fact that Backstrom has been so consistent this year for Minnesota. The Wild do a terrific job of cutting off the passing lanes, reducing the quality chances that their opposition has offensively. This means fewer tips, one timers, and chances created by finesse in the offensive zone...exactly the strength of the Colorado forwards. Backstrom won't be challenged as much, in other words, so Theodore is going to have to be on.
In my opinion, the Avs will push Minnesota in a couple of games but, ultimately, won't be able to withstand the total team effort that Lemaire makes sure his team brings on a nightly basis. In watching the Wild this year (and I've seen them quite a bit given that they're a NW division team) they just seem like a team born and bred for the postseason. I think they begin what may very well be a surprising playoff run here by eliminating the Avs in five...
Western Conference Quarterfinals: San Jose v. Calgary
To me, the Sharks have been the best team in hockey over the past six weeks or so. They produce offensively from a variety of lines and situations and, perhaps more importantly, they can also play some very solid, shut-down defense if they need to. They're tough, smart, get great goaltending, and put forth a great effort every single night.
In a way, it's great that they're playing Calgary in the first round. If you're looking for a team that, at least in terms of attitude, can compete physically with the Sharks, Calgary is one of the two teams in the west that probably fit the bill. Kiprusoff wasn't exactly his normal self this year, however, and the typical Calgary MO of winning games by scoring two or three goals just didn't work this season. Still, the Flames have a potential Hart finalist in Jerome Iginla, good scoring threats in the form of guys like Huselius, Langkow, and Tanguay, and also potential scoring from the blueline in Aucoin and Phaneuf. To me, Phaneuf is one of the most dynamic players in the league. He's dangerous in the offensive zone, tough as freakin' nails, plays his position smartly, and is one of the best hitters in the game. Once Lidstrom retires this guy will end up with a couple of Norris Trophies, mark my words. The Flames also played well against the Sharks this year, winning three of four meetings.
Still, you look at the Sharks...their roster, the streak they had late in the year (18-0-2 before two meaningless losses after clinching the division), and how multi-dimensional each of their lines seems to be and I, frankly, just don't see how Calgary is going to outlast them in a seven game series. The Sharks, arguably, scratch forwards on a nightly basis that might be on the 2nd or 3rd lines in Calgary...that's how deep they are at the forward positions, particularly center and right wing. I really liked the addition of Brian Campbell at the deadline and I also liked the decision to hold onto Patrick Marleau rather than trading him. GM Doug Wilson recognized that this could very well be the year for San Jose and wisely held onto Marleau rather than potentially upsetting team chemistry. I think more opportunistic goal scoring, better goaltending, and overall roster depth give the Sharks a big advantage over Calgary in what should be a very, very physical series that I see San Jose winning in 5 or 6 games.
Additional note: we'll get a sense of how this series will go more quickly than most of the others. SJ-Calgary is only one of two series in the playoffs where games are scheduled to be played on consecutive nights...and SJ-Calgary open with consecutive games on Wed. and Thu. in San Jose...
In a way, it's great that they're playing Calgary in the first round. If you're looking for a team that, at least in terms of attitude, can compete physically with the Sharks, Calgary is one of the two teams in the west that probably fit the bill. Kiprusoff wasn't exactly his normal self this year, however, and the typical Calgary MO of winning games by scoring two or three goals just didn't work this season. Still, the Flames have a potential Hart finalist in Jerome Iginla, good scoring threats in the form of guys like Huselius, Langkow, and Tanguay, and also potential scoring from the blueline in Aucoin and Phaneuf. To me, Phaneuf is one of the most dynamic players in the league. He's dangerous in the offensive zone, tough as freakin' nails, plays his position smartly, and is one of the best hitters in the game. Once Lidstrom retires this guy will end up with a couple of Norris Trophies, mark my words. The Flames also played well against the Sharks this year, winning three of four meetings.
Still, you look at the Sharks...their roster, the streak they had late in the year (18-0-2 before two meaningless losses after clinching the division), and how multi-dimensional each of their lines seems to be and I, frankly, just don't see how Calgary is going to outlast them in a seven game series. The Sharks, arguably, scratch forwards on a nightly basis that might be on the 2nd or 3rd lines in Calgary...that's how deep they are at the forward positions, particularly center and right wing. I really liked the addition of Brian Campbell at the deadline and I also liked the decision to hold onto Patrick Marleau rather than trading him. GM Doug Wilson recognized that this could very well be the year for San Jose and wisely held onto Marleau rather than potentially upsetting team chemistry. I think more opportunistic goal scoring, better goaltending, and overall roster depth give the Sharks a big advantage over Calgary in what should be a very, very physical series that I see San Jose winning in 5 or 6 games.
Additional note: we'll get a sense of how this series will go more quickly than most of the others. SJ-Calgary is only one of two series in the playoffs where games are scheduled to be played on consecutive nights...and SJ-Calgary open with consecutive games on Wed. and Thu. in San Jose...
Monday, April 7, 2008
Eastern Conference Quarterfinal: Rangers v. New Jersey
Is it just me or is this the most underhyped series ever between two NY area teams? Hell, even Versus seems to be focusing on Pens-Sens instead of this one. Maybe it's because a lot of people don't think this is going to be much of a series based upon how the Rangers were generally dominant against the Devils for most of the season...or maybe the Devils' reputation as the trapping, play not to lose franchise is making people pay less attention to these games until they need a cure for insomnia. Nevertheless, I think this is a series certainly worth watching as it features a couple of teams with veteran leadership, some good Cup experience, and two of the best netminders in the east. Either of these teams, if they get hot, could do some real damage to whoever they play in round two.
Going into this season the Rangers were pinned by a lot of media types as a team to watch. Given who they signed (and what they paid) this was probably a fair assessment. It took a little bit of time but Drury and Gomez eventually fit in pretty well with the Rangers...Drury finished tied with Jagr for the team lead in goals while Gomez led the Rangers in assists. Still, I got the sense throughout the season that this team just wasn't quite meeting its potential in terms of offense. If the Rangers can step it up offensively, look out...they've got firepower exceeded only by the Habs, Pens, and possibly the Sens in the east. The same also holds true for it's blueline play which, to me, is going to be the key for this team to get anywhere in the postseason. The Rangers have a collection of solid, if unremarkable, defencemen which will need to elevate their gameplay to give Henrik Lundqvist a chance to win games for them.
On the other side, one has to wonder what the hell is going to happen to the Devils franchise when Martin Broudeur retires. Here they are yet again, heading into a postseason with an offense that has been struggling of late, ready to try to ride Marty to yet another Stanley Cup. The thing is you really can't blame them. We've all seen series where Brodeur is just unfuckingbelievable and wins the thing essentially by himself. The Devils have been a little bit more prolific offensively this year than they have in the past. Parise, Gionta, and Elias have been pretty consistent contributors and I've also been really impressed by the play of Martin and Oduya on the blueline. The offense wilted late in the season, however, and a big part of whether or not the Devils can do anything in the postseason will depend on how their top two lines and their power play perform. If they can score enough to give Brodeur some support they can push any team in the conference.
I'm taking the Rangers in this series. First, I like the grit that I think the Rangers will bring to the series, exemplified by guys like Avery and Orr. Outside of David Clarkson the Devils don't have any players ever close to either of these guys and, as we all know, Clarkson is no Avery. I think the Rangers outhit the Devils and take the more offensive minded forwards like Gionta and Parise off their game. Second, I look for the Rangers veterans to really elevate their level of play in the postseason. Drury, Jagr, Shanahan...they've been great playoff performers in the past and I think they and the other Ranger forwards click this postseason. This may be where the big salary outlays finally begin to pay off. Finally, I think Lundqvist outplays Brodeur. This is a dangerous call, I realize...Marty's a legend and is one of the best big game goalies in league history. Still, I think between solid blueline play and some good forechecking by the Ranger forwards, Lundqvist is going to have an easier time this series than Brodeur. I also think that Lundqvist may sense that some may feel he's underachieved a bit after such a strong showing last year. This is his chance to step it up and, personally, I think he has it in him.
Naturally the x factor here is Brodeur. I think this is the first time I've picked against him in years out of just the sheer apprehension that the man might singlehandedly win the whole damn series by himself. He's older and not as good as he was pre-lockout but I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him steal a series (or maybe even two) if he gets hot.
Going into this season the Rangers were pinned by a lot of media types as a team to watch. Given who they signed (and what they paid) this was probably a fair assessment. It took a little bit of time but Drury and Gomez eventually fit in pretty well with the Rangers...Drury finished tied with Jagr for the team lead in goals while Gomez led the Rangers in assists. Still, I got the sense throughout the season that this team just wasn't quite meeting its potential in terms of offense. If the Rangers can step it up offensively, look out...they've got firepower exceeded only by the Habs, Pens, and possibly the Sens in the east. The same also holds true for it's blueline play which, to me, is going to be the key for this team to get anywhere in the postseason. The Rangers have a collection of solid, if unremarkable, defencemen which will need to elevate their gameplay to give Henrik Lundqvist a chance to win games for them.
On the other side, one has to wonder what the hell is going to happen to the Devils franchise when Martin Broudeur retires. Here they are yet again, heading into a postseason with an offense that has been struggling of late, ready to try to ride Marty to yet another Stanley Cup. The thing is you really can't blame them. We've all seen series where Brodeur is just unfuckingbelievable and wins the thing essentially by himself. The Devils have been a little bit more prolific offensively this year than they have in the past. Parise, Gionta, and Elias have been pretty consistent contributors and I've also been really impressed by the play of Martin and Oduya on the blueline. The offense wilted late in the season, however, and a big part of whether or not the Devils can do anything in the postseason will depend on how their top two lines and their power play perform. If they can score enough to give Brodeur some support they can push any team in the conference.
I'm taking the Rangers in this series. First, I like the grit that I think the Rangers will bring to the series, exemplified by guys like Avery and Orr. Outside of David Clarkson the Devils don't have any players ever close to either of these guys and, as we all know, Clarkson is no Avery. I think the Rangers outhit the Devils and take the more offensive minded forwards like Gionta and Parise off their game. Second, I look for the Rangers veterans to really elevate their level of play in the postseason. Drury, Jagr, Shanahan...they've been great playoff performers in the past and I think they and the other Ranger forwards click this postseason. This may be where the big salary outlays finally begin to pay off. Finally, I think Lundqvist outplays Brodeur. This is a dangerous call, I realize...Marty's a legend and is one of the best big game goalies in league history. Still, I think between solid blueline play and some good forechecking by the Ranger forwards, Lundqvist is going to have an easier time this series than Brodeur. I also think that Lundqvist may sense that some may feel he's underachieved a bit after such a strong showing last year. This is his chance to step it up and, personally, I think he has it in him.
Naturally the x factor here is Brodeur. I think this is the first time I've picked against him in years out of just the sheer apprehension that the man might singlehandedly win the whole damn series by himself. He's older and not as good as he was pre-lockout but I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him steal a series (or maybe even two) if he gets hot.
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals: Washington v. Philadelphia
To me this is the most intriguing matchup of the Eastern quarterfinals. The relative lack of playoff experience on either side essentially cancels itself out...this is the first time post-lockout that either of these teams has made it to the playoffs. Obviously the Caps have been the bigger nationwide media story with Ovechkin having a record setting year but the gelling of the relatively young Flyers into a offensively balanced, solid team that can win every night might be considered an even more impressive accomplishment.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that most of the media types will boil this series down to the performance of Ovechkin; if the Flyers control him they win, lose if they don't. As always, however, a playoff series has levels beyond those regarding a single player and this one is no different. The addition of Huet at the trade deadline and also greater producitivity beyond the first line over the past 20 games put the Caps in the postseason and it's these factors (along with Ovechkin, of course) that will give them a chance in this series. The emergence of guys like Niklas Backstrom, Mike Green and Alexander Semin plus the play of a rejuvenated Sergei Fedorov means that the Flyers will have to focus on more than just Ovechkin to win four games from this team.
In comparing rosters, however, one thing that strikes me about the Flyers is their offensive depth. In fact, when it comes to scoring, the Flyers almost seem to be the polar opposite of the Caps. Instead of relying heavily on one player, the Flyers have managed to spread around the scoring at an impressively effective rate. Seven different Flyers have hit the 20 goal mark this year as opposed to three for Washington (unless you count Ovechkin three times). Another great story for Philly has been the play of Martin Biron who has been terrific at times over the past month or so. I've watched him a few times over the past couple of weeks and I've just been so damn impressed with his positioning and patience in net. If he keeps up this type of play in the postseason the Flyers won't just get past the first round but could be serious threats to conference faves like the Habs and Pens.
I'm going to pick the Flyers in this series for a few reasons. First, the offensive balance highlighted above. I just can't see the Caps being able to handle the scoring threat from four lines that the Flyers can come at you with. They certainly aren't offensive showboats, but any of their lines should be considered a threat in the offensive zone. Second is the play of Biron. Huet has been great since coming to Washington but I think the Flyers will prevent Biron from having to face as many difficult shots as Huet. Both goalies will play well, I think, but based off of what I've seen in the past month Biron gets the edge here. Finally is the vets that are on the Flyers roster. Experience is at a premium in this series but having guys that have made deep playoff runs like Danny Briere, Jason Smith (who you know I love), and Derian Hatcher (whether he plays or not) gives the Flyers an edge over the Caps in this department.
Of course that's not to say the Caps don't have a chance. Ovechkin could possibly just annihilate the Flyers by himself and the Caps are certainly on more of an emotional high entering the postseason compared to the Flyers. Seeing the Caps move on to the next round cetainly wouldn't surprise me. Still, I think the balance and grit of the Flyers will allow them to take out the Caps in a series that goes five or maybe six games.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that most of the media types will boil this series down to the performance of Ovechkin; if the Flyers control him they win, lose if they don't. As always, however, a playoff series has levels beyond those regarding a single player and this one is no different. The addition of Huet at the trade deadline and also greater producitivity beyond the first line over the past 20 games put the Caps in the postseason and it's these factors (along with Ovechkin, of course) that will give them a chance in this series. The emergence of guys like Niklas Backstrom, Mike Green and Alexander Semin plus the play of a rejuvenated Sergei Fedorov means that the Flyers will have to focus on more than just Ovechkin to win four games from this team.
In comparing rosters, however, one thing that strikes me about the Flyers is their offensive depth. In fact, when it comes to scoring, the Flyers almost seem to be the polar opposite of the Caps. Instead of relying heavily on one player, the Flyers have managed to spread around the scoring at an impressively effective rate. Seven different Flyers have hit the 20 goal mark this year as opposed to three for Washington (unless you count Ovechkin three times). Another great story for Philly has been the play of Martin Biron who has been terrific at times over the past month or so. I've watched him a few times over the past couple of weeks and I've just been so damn impressed with his positioning and patience in net. If he keeps up this type of play in the postseason the Flyers won't just get past the first round but could be serious threats to conference faves like the Habs and Pens.
I'm going to pick the Flyers in this series for a few reasons. First, the offensive balance highlighted above. I just can't see the Caps being able to handle the scoring threat from four lines that the Flyers can come at you with. They certainly aren't offensive showboats, but any of their lines should be considered a threat in the offensive zone. Second is the play of Biron. Huet has been great since coming to Washington but I think the Flyers will prevent Biron from having to face as many difficult shots as Huet. Both goalies will play well, I think, but based off of what I've seen in the past month Biron gets the edge here. Finally is the vets that are on the Flyers roster. Experience is at a premium in this series but having guys that have made deep playoff runs like Danny Briere, Jason Smith (who you know I love), and Derian Hatcher (whether he plays or not) gives the Flyers an edge over the Caps in this department.
Of course that's not to say the Caps don't have a chance. Ovechkin could possibly just annihilate the Flyers by himself and the Caps are certainly on more of an emotional high entering the postseason compared to the Flyers. Seeing the Caps move on to the next round cetainly wouldn't surprise me. Still, I think the balance and grit of the Flyers will allow them to take out the Caps in a series that goes five or maybe six games.
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals: Pittsburgh v. Ottawa
I think many hockey fans are wondering what the hell happened to the Sens during the 2nd half of the season. After spending much of the 1st half of the year positioned for the '1' seed in the east, Ottawa creeps into the playoffs as the 7 seed and are arguably the coldest team entering the playoffs having won just 3 of their last 10. Still, a fan with any hockey knowledge whatsoever looks at the Ottawa roster and realizes that this could still be a very, very dangerous team in the postseason. All it would take would be for Heatley, Alfie, or Spezza to get really hot, mix that in with fair to decent goaltending to keep the opposition under control, and this is a team with enough talent to do some damage.
Still, you look at who the Sens are playing and the talent is almost as impressive, even if it is younger. The surprising thing about the Pens this season has been their goaltending and defensive play. First they make Ty Conklin look like a Vezina candidate and now, since coming back from injury, Fleury has looked amazing as well. Of course you also have Malkin (who many see as a legit Hart winner), Crosby, Sykora, Marian Hossa, and guys like Malone and Staal who have been good, opportunitstic scorers this year. This talent up front makes the Penguins a threat to score everytime they're in the offensive zone.
To me the key in this series, for both teams, will be defense and goaltending. I seriously doubt that generating offense (even though the Sens have been struggling in this dept. of late) will be a concern. When I look at this aspect of both teams, I like the consistency and playoff experience of the Sens blueliners...lotsa vets who have gone deep in the playoffs and good young defensemen that seem to never really make a lot of mistakes in their own end. The Pens have a couple of really solid blueliners (Sydor is a great veteren, Whitney is an underrated young defenseman) but the Sens have the ability to put together a lineup which can feature a really solid defensive pairing on ice for most of the game. In net, the clear advantage has to go to the Pens IMO. Emery led the Sens to the finals last year yet appears to be riding the bench for this postseason. Gerber has been really solid at times and has done well in big games before (anyone remember him for playing for Switzerland in the last Olympics?) but you gotta think that the Sens struggles over the last third or so of the season have eroded his confidence and probably caused him to place more pressure on himself to make saves, especially against a team that's as offensively prolific at Pittsburgh. To me the improved defensive play of the Pens has had a really positive effect on Conklin and, now, on Fleury in terms of their ability to hold leads and win games.
Given all this I'm taking Pittsburgh to win this one in 6 or 7. Their forwards have done a pretty good job of not only scoring goals but also providing some solid help in their own end. Combine this with consistent scoring and well above average goaltending and I just don't think the Sens will be able to take 4 of 7 from them. If Ottawa is going to stand a chance in this series they're going to have to find a way to recapture how they were playing over the first 40 games or so of the regular season. Personally I think we'll see some flashes of this (enough for 2-3 wins) but not enough for Ottawa to take the series.
Still, you look at who the Sens are playing and the talent is almost as impressive, even if it is younger. The surprising thing about the Pens this season has been their goaltending and defensive play. First they make Ty Conklin look like a Vezina candidate and now, since coming back from injury, Fleury has looked amazing as well. Of course you also have Malkin (who many see as a legit Hart winner), Crosby, Sykora, Marian Hossa, and guys like Malone and Staal who have been good, opportunitstic scorers this year. This talent up front makes the Penguins a threat to score everytime they're in the offensive zone.
To me the key in this series, for both teams, will be defense and goaltending. I seriously doubt that generating offense (even though the Sens have been struggling in this dept. of late) will be a concern. When I look at this aspect of both teams, I like the consistency and playoff experience of the Sens blueliners...lotsa vets who have gone deep in the playoffs and good young defensemen that seem to never really make a lot of mistakes in their own end. The Pens have a couple of really solid blueliners (Sydor is a great veteren, Whitney is an underrated young defenseman) but the Sens have the ability to put together a lineup which can feature a really solid defensive pairing on ice for most of the game. In net, the clear advantage has to go to the Pens IMO. Emery led the Sens to the finals last year yet appears to be riding the bench for this postseason. Gerber has been really solid at times and has done well in big games before (anyone remember him for playing for Switzerland in the last Olympics?) but you gotta think that the Sens struggles over the last third or so of the season have eroded his confidence and probably caused him to place more pressure on himself to make saves, especially against a team that's as offensively prolific at Pittsburgh. To me the improved defensive play of the Pens has had a really positive effect on Conklin and, now, on Fleury in terms of their ability to hold leads and win games.
Given all this I'm taking Pittsburgh to win this one in 6 or 7. Their forwards have done a pretty good job of not only scoring goals but also providing some solid help in their own end. Combine this with consistent scoring and well above average goaltending and I just don't think the Sens will be able to take 4 of 7 from them. If Ottawa is going to stand a chance in this series they're going to have to find a way to recapture how they were playing over the first 40 games or so of the regular season. Personally I think we'll see some flashes of this (enough for 2-3 wins) but not enough for Ottawa to take the series.
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals: Montreal v. Boston
You know what? I'm already happy. Typing 'Montreal v. Boston' and knowing that it refers to the postseason has officially given me a warm fuzzy...
I'm sure the media is going to make note (and rightfully so) of how clearly the Habs handled Boston this year. 8-0 (or whatever it was) is a pretty dominant showing. I'm also guessing that, if people are going to pick a sweep in the 1st round, it's going to be either this series or the 1-8 matchup in the west. While I certainly think Montreal is going to win this series, I do think a couple of factors are going to give Boston a chance...
1. Tim Thomas. Maddeningly inconsistent at times he's played well enough on occasion to convince me that he could steal a game or two from Montreal. Especially if Price falters a bit (hey, he's been great but he is a rookie after all) than Thomas could be solid enough to stretch the series to 6 or 7.
2. Discipline. Much has been and will be made about how terrific the Habs powerplay has been this season. If the B's put themselves in the box frequently look for this to be a short series. If the Bruins, especially the less experienced ones, can maintain a level head and show some discipline against the speedy Habs forwards then I think they have a chance to make the series interesting.
With this being said, however, I think the Habs are playing too well and with too much confidence to lose this series. I think Price will step up and play well or, at least, well enough to get Montreal to the next round.
I'm sure the media is going to make note (and rightfully so) of how clearly the Habs handled Boston this year. 8-0 (or whatever it was) is a pretty dominant showing. I'm also guessing that, if people are going to pick a sweep in the 1st round, it's going to be either this series or the 1-8 matchup in the west. While I certainly think Montreal is going to win this series, I do think a couple of factors are going to give Boston a chance...
1. Tim Thomas. Maddeningly inconsistent at times he's played well enough on occasion to convince me that he could steal a game or two from Montreal. Especially if Price falters a bit (hey, he's been great but he is a rookie after all) than Thomas could be solid enough to stretch the series to 6 or 7.
2. Discipline. Much has been and will be made about how terrific the Habs powerplay has been this season. If the B's put themselves in the box frequently look for this to be a short series. If the Bruins, especially the less experienced ones, can maintain a level head and show some discipline against the speedy Habs forwards then I think they have a chance to make the series interesting.
With this being said, however, I think the Habs are playing too well and with too much confidence to lose this series. I think Price will step up and play well or, at least, well enough to get Montreal to the next round.
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