Eastern Conference Quarterfinals: Pittsburgh v. Ottawa

I think many hockey fans are wondering what the hell happened to the Sens during the 2nd half of the season. After spending much of the 1st half of the year positioned for the '1' seed in the east, Ottawa creeps into the playoffs as the 7 seed and are arguably the coldest team entering the playoffs having won just 3 of their last 10. Still, a fan with any hockey knowledge whatsoever looks at the Ottawa roster and realizes that this could still be a very, very dangerous team in the postseason. All it would take would be for Heatley, Alfie, or Spezza to get really hot, mix that in with fair to decent goaltending to keep the opposition under control, and this is a team with enough talent to do some damage.

Still, you look at who the Sens are playing and the talent is almost as impressive, even if it is younger. The surprising thing about the Pens this season has been their goaltending and defensive play. First they make Ty Conklin look like a Vezina candidate and now, since coming back from injury, Fleury has looked amazing as well. Of course you also have Malkin (who many see as a legit Hart winner), Crosby, Sykora, Marian Hossa, and guys like Malone and Staal who have been good, opportunitstic scorers this year. This talent up front makes the Penguins a threat to score everytime they're in the offensive zone.

To me the key in this series, for both teams, will be defense and goaltending. I seriously doubt that generating offense (even though the Sens have been struggling in this dept. of late) will be a concern. When I look at this aspect of both teams, I like the consistency and playoff experience of the Sens blueliners...lotsa vets who have gone deep in the playoffs and good young defensemen that seem to never really make a lot of mistakes in their own end. The Pens have a couple of really solid blueliners (Sydor is a great veteren, Whitney is an underrated young defenseman) but the Sens have the ability to put together a lineup which can feature a really solid defensive pairing on ice for most of the game. In net, the clear advantage has to go to the Pens IMO. Emery led the Sens to the finals last year yet appears to be riding the bench for this postseason. Gerber has been really solid at times and has done well in big games before (anyone remember him for playing for Switzerland in the last Olympics?) but you gotta think that the Sens struggles over the last third or so of the season have eroded his confidence and probably caused him to place more pressure on himself to make saves, especially against a team that's as offensively prolific at Pittsburgh. To me the improved defensive play of the Pens has had a really positive effect on Conklin and, now, on Fleury in terms of their ability to hold leads and win games.

Given all this I'm taking Pittsburgh to win this one in 6 or 7. Their forwards have done a pretty good job of not only scoring goals but also providing some solid help in their own end. Combine this with consistent scoring and well above average goaltending and I just don't think the Sens will be able to take 4 of 7 from them. If Ottawa is going to stand a chance in this series they're going to have to find a way to recapture how they were playing over the first 40 games or so of the regular season. Personally I think we'll see some flashes of this (enough for 2-3 wins) but not enough for Ottawa to take the series.